So here, FINALLY, is part 3 of looking at The Futurist’s list of top ten forecasts. Its been a tough couple of weeks but being as we are a few days in 2009 I figured I should wrap this up.
Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century. Global fresh water shortages and drought conditions are spreading in both the developed and developing world. In response, the dry state of California is building 13 desalination plants that could provide 10%-20% of the state’s water in the next two decades. Desalination will become more mainstream by 2020.
While this senario is quite probably given our rate of comspumtion and our increasing demand, it overlooks one massive thing. Oil is what Oil is today because of its scarcity and difficulity to extract, however water on the otherhand is abundant and easy to procure. The problem is clean fresh water, thats no so easy to come by. But new techonologies like Dean Kamen’s water purifier will change that, water covers the vast majority of the planet, once we can make that drinkable this problem will lose some edge.
Forecast #7: World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected, due in part to healthier, longer-living people.Slower than expected declines of fertility in developing countries and increasing longevity in richer countries are contributing to a higher rate of population growth. As a result, the UN has increased its forecast for global population from 9.1 billion people by 2050 to 9.2 billion.
Trends may predicit these numbers, but there are external forces that will act on these numbers as well. As more of the third world becomes industrialized will will see the precidted numbers from those countires start to slide. It is a little bit counter-intuitive but as a population get more educated and industrialzed the birth rate tends to decline. This could be from several factors, increased sexual education, more densly packed cities, less need for farm help. However the coming dramatic increases in life expectance may blow both the high and low predictions out of the water, so this one is really too tough of a call to make.
Forecast #8: The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080. The rapid urbanization taking place throughout much of Africa makes flooding particularly dangerous, altering the natural flow of water and cutting off escape routes. If global sea levels rise by the predicted 38 cm by 2080, the number of Africans affected by floods will grow from 1 million to 70 million.
If the prevailing climate models are to be trusted Africans also have a growing worry about drought. It looks like Afica is going to be one of the hardest hit places in the coming few years.
Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Not just oil and natural gas, but also the Arctic’s supplies of nickel, copper, zinc, coal, freshwater, forests, and of course fish are highly coveted by the global economy. Whether the Arctic states tighten control over these commodities or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the decades ahead.
The artic is warming up, making exploration possible. This, rather than the rising prices for natural resources is the reason the rush is coming. Even if the demand was low people would still cultivate the artic if they could, now they are starting to be able too. However the bigger place to look to is the ant-artic, who knows what treasures like beneath that ice.
Forecast #10: More decisions will be made by nonhuman entities.Electronically enabled teams in networks, robots with artificial intelligence, and other noncarbon life-forms will make financial, health, educational, and even political decisions for us. Reason: Technologies are increasing the complexity of our lives and human workers’ competency is not keeping pace well enough to avoid disasters due to human error.
For years we have been giving more control up to machines. Look at the new modern cars with crash avoidance systems. It might not seem like a decision we are giving over but it is. This is something that will slowley happen and most people will never even know it happened. It is possible that a child born today will not have to worry about getting in a car accident when they get there licenece and they will never know the difference, its all a matter of perspecitve.
Well thank you for reading. Dont forget to subscribe to the RSS feed so you dont miss any of my inane ramblings.